Factories in the Midwest and across the U.S.grew at a slower pace last month and there are concerns that surging coronavirus infections will endanger an economic recovery.
Minnesota’s manufacturing index fell from 73.2 from 82.7 in October, still solid growth, Creighton University reported Tuesday. An index above 50 indicates growth.
“Recent surveys indicate that both durable and nondurable goods manufacturers are expanding at a solid pace” in Minnesota, said Ernie Goss, who leads Creighton’s Economic Forecasting Group, which conducts surveys for a nine-state Midwest region.
The index for the Midwest group fell to 69 in November from October’s 70.2, the first decrease since April, Goss said.
“Even so, current output in the regional and U.S. manufacturing sectors remains below pre-COVID-19 levels,” Goss said.
Meanwhile, the survey’s confidence index looking ahead six months plummeted 20 points to 50.0 this month from October’s 70.4.
“A sharp upturn in COVID-19 infections, along with more economic lockdowns, weighted on November’s economic outlook,” Goss said.
The Institute of Supply Management, an association of purchasing managers, reported the national manufacturing index dipped to 57.5 in November from 59.3 in October.
“For now, the manufacturing sector appears to be weathering another round of virus outbreaks fairly well,” Rubeela Farooqi, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote in a research note. “However, the outlook is uncertain given targeted restrictions and shutdowns, at home and abroad, could disrupt activity and weigh on demand.”
New orders and production grew more slowly last month. Hiring actually dropped, reversing a gain in October. New export orders grew faster. Sixteen of 18 industries surveyed reported growth last month, led by apparel and mineral manufacturers.
The U.S. economy collapsed from April through June and has since been recovering. But a sharp increase in infections is raising fears that the recovery will lose momentum as state and local governments issue lockdown orders and Americans stay home on their own to avoid infection.